Challenges of 2020, COVID19 and more

Can 2020 get even crazier?! We've had bushfires across Australia, tensions between USA and Iran, Royal Family drama and COVID19 fiasco - and we have not even reached mid-year yet!

2019 was hardly a fabulous year either... and based on trends we saw last year we should prepare for similar things to happen in 2020... Yes - I said it - it CAN get worse!

Let's have a look at some of the most historical events in the last 24 months.

South America - The Amazon Rainforest on Fire - Jan to Oct 2019

From January to October 2019, the Amazon rainforest reported over 40,000 fires spanning across Brazil, Bolivia, Peru, Paraguay and Columbia. Spanning over 900,000 hectares (3,500 sq miles). Due to the planets average temperature increasing it impacts the overall duration of the dry season.

The Amazon rainforest fires caught global attention and global scrutiny of Brazils response to the fires. Especially as the President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, refused support from other countries and swept off the call to take action as others being sheep to what was portrayed in the media.

Bolsonaro later conceded once the European Union free trade agreement was put on the line... he quickly dispatched 44,000 troops to fight the fires. By March 04, the last of the fires were put out.

Australia - The Black Summer - January to March 2020

January 2, the third state of emergency announced as the Bushfires in South Eastern Australia ravaged the country. By March the fires burnt an estimated 18.6 million hectares (72,000 square miles), destroyed over 5900 buildings and taken the lives of 34 people and over 1 billion animals.

Cost of managing and extinguishing the fires is expected to exceed over $4.5B AUD, with various tourism services and industries falling below $1B AUD within a few months.

There is evidence to show that the global rise of temperature is a direct cause for the increase in the ferocity of forest fires around the world. But fires haven't been the only thing to worry about!

Locust Infestation 2019-20:

Did you even know about locust infestation? I remember most of UK News was flooded with BREXIT that this barely made the cut! The locust infestation is spreading across Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and South Asia, destroying crops and farmland for an already vulnerable population.

A single locust can eat its own weight in crops and can travel up to 90 miles a day. A swarm can cover up to 1200 square kilometres and contain between 40-80 million locusts per square kilometre. The locusts can devour 100,000 to 200,000 tons of crops per day, and they place almost 1000 eggs per square metre of soil. The locust lives between 3-6 months and there is a 10-16 fold increase in locusts per generation.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation within the UN requested up to $58 million in aid to help combat the swarm. However, with COVID19 keeping borders locked down, the level of support and funding has been scarce whilst the issue continues to grow.

More details on locusts by National Geographic can be found >here<

Worldwide - COVID19

As I write this blog, we are in a strange stage of COVID19. The lockdown is slightly easing off yet the anxiety and stress of the virus still holds strong. At the time of writing this, on the website: https://ncov2019.live/, the current Total Confirmed cases are 4.7M, with 311,916 deceased and 44,631 in critical condition (16th May).

Challenges for COVID19

The world has been shaken, we are living in a modern-day pandemic that children will be writing essays about in the future.

As we begin to open up our economy... here are some questions that we have to consider for the inevitable 2nd wave...

• How much strain will the healthcare system be under if the 2nd wave of patients spikes up?

• Will a vaccine arrive in time to ease the 2nd wave peak?

• We often read articles about the mental health of people working from home... but what about the pressure on the essential workers - how long would it take for them to recover?

• What would happen to national morale if the government eases the lockdown, only to enforce it again?

For those reading in the future, how different is it now? I wonder what life is like reading this post in retrospect.

Trends to look out for:

COVID19 has dominated the news for 2020... However, there are more challenges awaiting us! The weather contributes to 90% of major disasters such as floods, storms, heatwaves and droughts.

Between 1995 and 2015 there was 6457 weather-related disaster which claimed 606,000 lives and affected more than 4 billion people. And this is not including the last 5 years of natural disasters!

You can read about the most recent natural disasters on the UN site here.

COVID19 - any real climate benefits?

As most of the world has come to a halt for COVID19, we can see pollution levels decreasing, fishes in Venice returning, ocean fronts clearing up and mountains being seen in the distance for the first time in decades.

All in all, for the short term benefits - COVID19 has brought about some good. But we all know that the lockdown must end sooner or later.

Companies cannot switch from fossil fuel to renewable energy within months, it'll take years to transition to renewable technologies. So enjoy the fresh air while it lasts!

Average Temperature:

The average temperature has not gone down - it is continuing to rise above 1981-2010 average worldwide.

Which leaves the question... what would it take for the planet to begin self-healing?

You can look at real-time data collected on the average temperature by NASA >here<.

It will take a colossal transformation for our world to be less dependent on fossil fuels and convert to renewable energy. In fact, you need to use fossil fuels to initially jump start that transition! The transition across industries could take 30 years in first world countries, and another 20 years on top in developing nations.

Drought Threat:

An estimated 55 million people globally are affected by droughts every year, with 40% of the world's population having trouble with water scarcity and as many as 700 million people at risk of being displaced as a result of droughts.

Over the last decade, we have seen an increase in the severity of droughts across Africa, leading to the most severe hunger cases in our time.

With the summers blazing ever stronger, it raises the threat level for people in poverty-stricken areas - where food supplies are already scarce.

Some key questions on droughts:

• How much land is now inhabitable due to droughts - and what is the YoY growth of this area?

• What is the YoY growth of people being displaced - and how sustainable are the cities that they then go to?

Bush and Forest Fires:

As witnessed in Australia and in the Amazon Rainforest, we should be wary that the likelihood of fires starting again is almost prophecy. Although we can see a 17% reduction in CO2 emissions worldwide, the temperature remains high - and it would take far more than a few months of global lockdown to repair years of planetary heating.

Some key questions to ponder on:

• How many trees can be burnt down before we reach a CO2 limit?

• What is the limit on wildlife before ecosystems are beyond repair?

With the COVID19 situation, how will firefighters conduct their operations safely? Where will people be able to migrate to for safety?

2020 has been challenging... but we have yet to feel the full heat of summer...

The next 10 years will test not only our resilience to natural disasters, pandemics and economic downturn... but also our courage, patience and humanity to pull through this together and build a sustainable life that will allow the planet to self-heal.